( Ni game moja tu imeniangusha)

When habitually gambling; whether its sports betting, virtual leagues, online casino, slot machines, lottery etc 80% of the time you almost won, right? I bet you did. It was that one game or lucky number or card that did put you out of the win. Many think this is a coincidence but that’s not the case. The jackpots, multibets and slot machines many times are designed in a way to create the near miss.

Near win is not equal to winning. So why do you keep on betting?

The difference of course is the win, but studies show that our brain does not think so. It processes both as a win.” According to the scientists, near-misses have some intrinsic appeal for our reward circuitry, tricking those brain cells into believing that we won even though we actually lost.” https://www.wired.com/2011/03/the-near-miss-effect/

Our brains are designed this way because near misses help us stay motivated when engaged in activities that require actual skill, and not luck. It is a mechanism the brain uses to register progress. When you only 2 points away from having a grade A in mathematics, the near miss effect compels you to study harder. The fact that you almost performed well enough kind of tells you that what you were doing was working and it motivates you to try again next time. The purpose of near misses is that.

A near miss betslip

However this useful mechanism has been hijacked and misled by gambling ie games of chance. There is no skill with slot machines, sports betting and lottery and yet when you get the near miss, your brain urges you onwards and suggests that you try harder. There is nothing you getting better at! Its all random here. If you get 5/7 in a multibet you placed this world cup, there is nothing you need to do next time so as to improve and get 7/7. its all a matter of chance, no skill! For the betting companies, the beauty of a near miss is crystal clear: Although you have lost money, it feels as if you won. As a result, they are able to make you happy while still taking you your hard earned cash.

For example A gambler who gets 13/17 games in megajackpot will brag to friends how he was 4 games from being a multi millionaire. He attributes this to skill. From statistics class we learnt something called normal distribution which is the most popular way of describing random events like the results of football games. It is a probability distribution that is symmetric about the mean, showing that data near the mean are more frequent than data far from the mean. In our case we have megajackpot of 17 games whose mean is 9. assuming even 100000 people bet on the jackpot, Results will be clustered around 9 correct games ie 5-13 is the range.

100000 (people)

0 _____3 _____5 _____7_____9____11_____13_____ 15____17.
(Correct games predicted)

Getting 17 predictions correct will be next to impossible and so is getting 0 predictions correct. This shows the results are random and you can never have a skill in predicting random events. It is the reason some betting companies are offering huge rewards for getting 0/17 in the jackpot.

So now you know! Don’t get caught up in this fallacy. Near win means nothing. It’s a game of chance.

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